When Texas Turns Blue, The Republican Party Dies
Texas is the Republican party’s last stand and it’s already at the point of no return. Texas will turn BLUE; it’s no longer a matter of IF, but WHEN.
Here’s why Republicans should be freaking out about this (and behind closed doors, maybe they are).
Now when I say ‘dies’, I simply mean that the Republican party will no longer win presidential elections against Democrats. Once Texas goes Blue, it’s not going back to Red, and in the modern political era, no Republican has won the US presidency WITHOUT winning the state of Texas.
There will be too much baggage and not enough older, white, evangelical voters to carry on the Republican legacy. The Republican party may undergo some drastic changes to appeal to the modern voter or could even be replaced with a new political party/identity, but when Texas turns blue, the modern Republican party will effectively be dead.
I briefly wrote about why the next Republican president would be the LAST Republican president here:
You see, for almost 50 years, Texas has voted Republican for every presidential election except for one, where Jimmy Carter got the nod over Gerald Ford by a slim margin of 3% of the votes.
In the 2020 US Presidential Election, the state of Texas controlled 38 electoral votes and was won by Trump. Losing this block of votes in a modern election would have been absolutely catastrophic to the Republican party. It would be difficult, if not impossible, for the Republicans to see any path to winning the presidency WITHOUT the state of Texas (in 2020 and all future elections).
Here are the numbers from the past three presidential elections in Texas.
2012: 57.17%–41.38%
2016: 52.23%–43.24% (+1.86% Democratic GAIN)
2020: 52.2%–46.4% (+3.16% Democratic GAIN)
This shows a slow (but clear) gain for Democrats and the 2020 election was closer than anyone would have dared to expect less than a decade ago.
While a small, slow swing in votes might not convince you, here’s the big reason why Texas will turn Blue: the population of Texas is GROWING.
Where? Primarily in the major metro areas and these areas are heavily Democratic. Remember, Texas has three of the top ten largest cities in the US.
These are the largest counties in Texas as indicated by the size of their populations. For reference: Harris = Houston, Dallas = Dallas, Tarrant — Fort Worth, Bexar = San Antonio, and Travis = Austin.
As the population size of Texas’ largest cities grows, so do these counties and these counties are proving to be largely Democratic.
Here is another visual map that shows how STRONGLY each Texas county leans politically. As time goes on and the population of Texas continues to grow, these blue areas will only grow stronger.
Source: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2016_United_States_presidential_election_in_Texas
Texas hasn’t had a Democrat Senator since 1988. Let’s look at the past election numbers for the US Senate seats from Texas:
Senate Seat #1
2000: 65% Red — 32.4% Blue
2006: 61.7% Red — 36% Blue (+3.6 Democrat GAIN)
2012: 56.5% Red — 40.6% Blue(+4.6 Democrat GAIN)
2018: 50.9% Red — 48.3% Blue (+7.7 Democrat GAIN)
Senate Seat #2
2012: 61.6% Red — 34.4% Blue
2020: 53.6% Red — 43.7% Blue (+9.3 Democrat GAIN)
You can see that while the Republicans have been winning, the Democratic candidates are closing in and making each race closer and closer.
As states grow, they also add additional congressional districts. Each new district also adds an additional electoral vote. The more electoral votes that a state has, the more powerful, influential, and IMPORTANT the state becomes in a presidential election.
So as the population of Texas grows, it not only leans more and more Democratic, but the state also grows STRONGER overall as their electoral vote count also grows. Texas had 38 electoral votes in 2020 but could have more votes in future elections for whichever party wins the state (trending towards Democrats).
In 1992, Texas added THREE new congressional districts. They have voted BLUE in every single election since.
In 2002, Texas added TWO more new congressional districts. They have voted RED in every single election until the most recent election, 2018, where one turned BLUE.
In 2012, Texas added FOUR more new congressional districts. Three out of four have voted BLUE in every single election since.
Overall, seven of the nine, 78%, of the new congressional districts are voting BLUE in Texas.
If this trend continues, then even if nothing else changes, Texas will eventually turn into a Blue state. Honestly, at this point, it’s no longer a matter of IF, but WHEN.
Things don’t change overnight. Change takes time. Quoted from Earnest Hemingway’s The Sun Also Rises:
“How did you go bankrupt?” Bill asked.
“Two ways,” Mike said. “Gradually, then suddenly.”
It’s also attributed in different ways to several well-known authors like Steven Dennis and Seth Godin:
“What is Gradually, Then Suddenly? I borrowed this idea from Steven Dennis and Seth Godin. Although unnoticeable, gradually eventually leads to suddenly. It builds momentum. It succumbs to the compound effect.”
And that’s exactly what’s happening in Texas. The writing is on the wall and the numbers don’t lie. The change and momentum are clear and before Republicans can try to think about ways to stop it, they better start with figuring out how to merely slow it down.
