The NEXT Republican president will be the LAST Republican president
Just look at the DATA.
Don’t look for political commentary and this has nothing to do with Trump or Biden. Look at the data for yourself and see if you can read the writing on the wall. To see things differently, you’ll have to explain how the Republican party is going to REPLACE their votes/power as the country ages, religious affiliations decline, education levels increase, and the population continues to diversify.
Times are changing and the Republican party’s influence is largely (although not entirely) composed of older white men who consider themselves religious. As time marches on, and younger, more diverse voters replace older white voters, how is this going to play out?
“The declining white population share is pervasive across the nation. Since 2010, the white population share declined in all 50 states, in 358 of the nation’s 364 metropolitan areas, and 3,012 of its 3,141 counties. Moreover, as of 2019, 27 of the 100 largest metropolitan areas have minority-white populations, including the major metropolises of New York, Los Angeles, Washington, D.C., and Miami — as well as Dallas, Atlanta, and Orlando.
Most noteworthy is the increased diversity in the younger portion of the population. In 2019, for the first time, more than half of the nation’s population under age 16 identified as a racial or ethnic minority. Among this group, Latino or Hispanic and Black residents together comprise nearly 40% of the population. Given the greater projected growth of all nonwhite racial minority groups compared to whites — along with their younger age structure — the racial diversity of the nation that was already forecasted to flow upward from the younger to older age groups looks to be accelerating.”
One political party’s power/voting base is:
Older (declining)
White (declining)
Religious (declining)
And the other political party is:
Younger (increasing)
Diverse (increasing)
Non-religious (increasing)
This isn’t that complicated.
Voters who lean Democrat tend to be younger, have more formal education, are more ethnically diverse, and consider themselves to be non-religious.
Voters who lean Republican tend to be older, have less formal education, are white, and consider themselves to be religious.
This doesn’t mean that there aren’t young, non-white, and non-religious Republicans, and this doesn’t mean that all Republicans lack formal education. This is just DATA; don’t get emotional.
As time marches on, four things will happen:
1. Older voters will be replaced by younger voters.
2. Generationally, education levels will rise.
3. Diversity will continue to increase.
4. Religion will continue to decline.
Diversity in America:
1980
White: 79.6%
Black: 11.5%
Hispanic: 6.5%
Asian: 1.8%
2000
White: 69.1%
Black: 12.6%
Hispanic: 12.1%
Asian: 3.8%
2019
White: 60.1%
Black: 12.5%
Hispanic: 18.5%
Asian: 5.9%
Gender differences in USA: (50.8% female, 49.2% male)
Men lean Republican (+4%)
Women lean democrat (+19%)
Age difference in USA:
Younger voters lean Democrat, older voters lean Republican.
(As time goes by, one generation replaces another)
Millennials (1981–1996) overall lean Democrat (+27%)
Men: +8% Democrat.
Women: +47% Democrat.
White: +11% Democrat.
Non-white: +54% Democrat
Gen X (1965–1980) overall lean Democrat (+5%)
Men: +6% Republican.
Women: +17% Democrat.
White: +11% Republican.
Non-white: +40% Democrat.
Boomers (1946–1964) overall lean Democrat (+2%)
Men: +8% Republican.
Women: +12% Democrat.
White: +12% Republican.
Non-white: +49% Democrat.
Silent (1928–1945) overall lean Republican (+9%)
Men: +8% Republican.
Women: +2% Republican.
White: +23% Republican.
Non-white: +56% Democrat.
RACE
Black voters lean Democrat (+76%)
Hispanic voters lean Democrat (35%)
Asian voters lean Democrat (+38%)
White voters lean Republican (+8%)
RELIGIOUS AFFILIATIONS
Religious affiliation is on the decline in America and the non-religious lean Democrat.
White evangelical Protestant: lean Republican (+59%)
White mainline Protestant: lean Republican (+8%)
Mormons: lean Republican (+50%)
White Catholic: lean Republican (+14%)
Hispanic Catholic: lean Democrat (+37%)
Black Protestant: lean Democrat (+80%)
Jewish: lean Democrat: (+36%)
Religiously unaffiliated: lean Democrat (+46%)
POPULATION LOCATION
(Trends show increasing levels of Urban population over time)
Urban voters: lean Democrat (+31%)
Suburban voters: lean Democrat (+2%)
Rural voters: lean Republican (+16%)
EDUCATION LEVELS
High school or less: lean Republican (+2%)
Some college: lean Democrat (+2%)
College grad: lean Democrat (+15%)
Graduate degree: lean Democrat (+32%)
If you just look at education level among white voters, the data shows that the more formal education a person has, the more they lean Democrat:
High school or less: lean Republican (+23%)
Some college: lean Republican (+16%)
College grad: lean Democrat (+3%)
Graduation degree: lean Democrat (+22%)
So maybe you’re worried about another Trump term. In 2020, it’s possible. But, moving forward, unless the Republican party goes through some massive transformations over the next few years, he would likely be the LAST Republican president.
Sources:
https://www.pewresearch.org/politics/2018/03/20/1-trends-in-party-affiliation-among-demographic-groups/
https://www.brookings.edu/research/new-census-data-shows-the-nation-is-diversifying-even-faster-than-predicted/
https://www.cheatsheet.com/entertainment/how-old-is-the-average-fox-news-viewer-in-america.html/
